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Forum:2011 North Indian Ocean cyclone season/1
Bay of Bengal 01B:NONAME Tropical Depression 01B Formed just yesterday. It really is a sad excuse for sh!t, but it isn't out of the question our first NS in the NIO could come from this... Ryan1000 00:26, February 3, 2011 (UTC) :...Aaaand it's gone. I wasn't surprised, it was too close to land to really become anything, but it still could cause some flooding in India. Ryan1000 21:47, February 3, 2011 (UTC) 02B:NONAME Tropical Depression 02B And the 3rd depression has developed here. It's currently the strongest storm of the season, but it still hasn't become Kaima, and it's making landfall anyway. Ryan1000 01:50, June 17, 2011 (UTC) Now a deep depression on the IMD scale. Andrew444 03:03, June 18, 2011 (UTC) :Ah, it's gone for, it rescently went inland and now it's down and out. I'll have to wait till later. Ryan1000 16:14, June 20, 2011 (UTC) : 03B:NONAME Depression BOB 03 WAKE UP! WAKE UPPPP!! It's September 22! We have already missed a land depression in July, but no, not this one. But cheers for Keila! Hurricane Andrew (444) 11:09, September 22, 2011 (UTC) :I don't think it is getting to Kelia. It's pretty close to land. Yqt1001 12:13, September 22, 2011 (UTC) ::It looks better few days ago.10Q. 12:17, September 22, 2011 (UTC) :::Andrew, this thing isn't even on Wunderground. It's not going to become Kelia. NIO could, at this rate, have no storms, for god's sake. They missed their first peak, and missing their second would be disasterous for their activity. Ryan1000 21:51, September 22, 2011 (UTC) ::::Gone... Yqt1001 19:47, September 23, 2011 (UTC) ::::Man, the NIO has now missed nearly 5/6 of their season. But in November, when the second peak's rollin' we may get Keila. Hurricane Andrew (444) 21:04, September 23, 2011 (UTC) :::::Or our only NIO named storm of the season.''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] 02:34, October 5, 2011 (UTC) 04B.NONAME 04B.INVEST Low chance of developing.[[User: Cyclone10|''10]][[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] [[User Blog: Cyclone10|''VEST]] 00:28, October 17, 2011 (UTC) Medium chance. The second peak is coming, so this is not out of the ordinary. Hurricane Andrew (444) 22:02, October 18, 2011 (UTC) : Better get its act up now, because it's almost to landfall.''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] [[User Blog: Cyclone10|''VEST]] 01:17, October 19, 2011 (UTC) :: And it does...TCFA alert!''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] [[User Blog: Cyclone10|''VEST]] 02:31, October 19, 2011 (UTC) ::: Weird...not a depression yet by IMD.''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] [[User Blog: Cyclone10|''VEST]] 02:35, October 19, 2011 (UTC) Depression BOB 04 Upgraded. Hurricane Andrew (444) 11:38, October 19, 2011 (UTC) :It's expected to briefly get a name. Yqt1001 12:00, October 19, 2011 (UTC) ::And made landfall and never got a name. Yqt1001 19:28, October 19, 2011 (UTC) :::I never saw this one coming... When I checked weather underground last night(at the same time I said NIO had no activity) this thing wasn't even an invest here. I was surprised at it's quick development, but it didn't become a named storm(Keila) and that's final. At the rate NIO is going, I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes the first NIO season(and tropical cyclone season) in recorded history to not have a single named storm. Everywhere else remains silent. Ryan1000 20:25, October 19, 2011 (UTC) Deep Depression BOB 04 Actually, it's become a deep depression, but it will make landfall anytime in the next 3-9 hours. Hurricane Andrew (444) 21:58, October 19, 2011 (UTC) Anderw, this storm made landfall several hours ago. It's well inland now, and I highly doubt it will become Keila over land. Ryan1000 22:28, October 19, 2011 (UTC) Last advisory by JTWC. ''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] [[User Blog: Cyclone10|''VEST]] 23:38, October 19, 2011 (UTC) Now it's gone for good. No Keila coming here. Ryan1000 10:43, October 21, 2011 (UTC) 05A.NONAME 98B.INVEST A new invest has formed in the BoB. 01F. '' 00:51, November 23, 2011 (UTC) It's rather disorganized and it has a low chance right now, but it exists nevertheless. ''Ryan1000 16:28, November 23, 2011 (UTC) It has a medium chance. Fix - low chance 01F. '' 17:14, November 23, 2011 (UTC) I think we have something going here. We could see Thane come out of this in the next few days. ''Ryan1000 13:33, November 25, 2011 (UTC) TCFA issued on this system. Could become ARB 04 or BOB 05. 01F. '' 16:43, November 25, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone 05A How come no one updated this?Cyclone10 04:17, November 26, 2011 (UTC) Expected to become the strongest storm of the year, and make landfall in 6 days.Cyclone10 04:28, November 26, 2011 (UTC) 99B.INVEST 99B.INVEST New invest in the BoB. ''13R. '' 22:38, November 29, 2011 (UTC) Arabian Sea 01A:NONAME Tropical Depression 01A Not too sure why it's called TCOne when there has already been a TD with that name, but whatever, it is currently forecast to last not even 24 hours at most and then make landfall in India. Yqt1001 15:47, June 11, 2011 (UTC) :In the NIO, this one is numbered "01A" by the IMD, and the earlier depression was called "01B". They are given abbreviations by the IMD, ARB for Arabian Sea, and BOB for the Bay of Bengal. Anyhow, this one is currently off of India's coast, and if it becomes named, will be named Keila. Ryan1000 19:34, June 11, 2011 (UTC) ::Ah makes sense, anyways I don't think it will be named, it's pretty much made landfall. Yqt1001 22:59, June 11, 2011 (UTC) :Yeah, it's already hitting India as a minor storm, and it didn't become a named storm. The NIO now has missed half their season, and two or 3 storms would be the maximum for them as of now, but anything is possible. 1977 was near record-dead, with just two storms, but the Andhra Pradesh cyclone of that season killed anywhere from 14,000 to 50,000 people and did half a billion dollars in damage, making it one of India's worst storms in history. You never know how deadly the NIO can be, but it goes to show the quietest basin worldwide can still have quite a bit of note. The 1977 storm formed in November, as did the 1970 storm in Bangladesh. Ryan1000 01:23, June 12, 2011 (UTC) 03A.KEILA 95A.INVEST Hopefully something good could come out of this.''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] [[User Blog: Cyclone10|''VEST]] 22:19, October 25, 2011 (UTC) Medium chance.''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] [[User Blog: Cyclone10|''VEST]] 04:06, October 29, 2011 (UTC) We could see Keila out of this, it's well over open waters and it looks pretty well-organized. NIO isn't supposed to see Gonu-like storms at this time of year in the Arrabian Sea, but it still has a chance of development. ''Ryan1000 13:28, October 29, 2011 (UTC) Depression ARB 02 It's here.''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] [[User Blog: Cyclone10|''VEST]] 13:48, October 29, 2011 (UTC) This could be our first named storm of the year. BTW, if this does become Keila, would this be the latest date for a season's first named storm on record in the NIO? Andrew '' 00:03, October 31, 2011 (UTC) Yes, it would. The NIO has missed just about all of their season, and it still isn't certain this storm will become Keila; it rescently lost itself a bit. If this one can't become named, then I wouldn't be surprised if we have our first tropical cyclone season in recorded history without a single named storm. ''Ryan1000 01:57, October 31, 2011 (UTC) Not yet named, and this really looks like a TC to me.''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] [[User Blog: Cyclone10|''VEST]] 00:15, November 1, 2011 (UTC) IMD only forecasts a deep depression out of this storm, not a named storm. It's just about to make landfall in Oman/Yemen, and I said earlier I wouldn't be surprised if this doesn't become Keila. Everywhere else is quiet. Ryan1000 10:39, November 1, 2011 (UTC) Deep Depression ARB 02 Finally a deep depression. Andrew '' 12:03, November 1, 2011 (UTC) : I keep this as a deep depression, it's too unlikely to be a named storm.''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] [[User Blog: Cyclone10|''VEST]] 12:16, November 1, 2011 (UTC) :: TCFA alert.''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] [[User Blog: Cyclone10|''VEST]] 19:43, November 1, 2011 (UTC) ::: The best repelica for this is the 2002 Oman Cyclone.''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] [[User Blog: Cyclone10|''VEST]] 20:38, November 1, 2011 (UTC) :::: This thing has pretty much made landfall; it has to be upgraded right this instant if it ever will. If this thing can't make it, then the NIO could just stay dead. ''Ryan1000 01:27, November 2, 2011 (UTC) :::: It's now Keila. Anonymous 2.0 15:07 UTC+8' 02 November 2011 Cyclonic Storm Keila Yup, it's here.''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] [[User Blog: Cyclone10|''VEST]] 02:56, November 2, 2011 (UTC) It's going into the Gulf of Aden and weaken there.''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] [[User Blog: Cyclone10|''VEST]] 02:59, November 2, 2011 (UTC) It's now named Keila. ''Anonymous 2.0 15:07 ''UTC+8 02 November 2011 This is also our latest first named storm ever. ''Andrew '' 11:57, November 2, 2011 (UTC) Made landfall.''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] [[User Blog: Cyclone10|''VEST]] 20:19, November 2, 2011 (UTC) So we got Keila after all. We could have used some activity in this basin, and now we have it, but we need at least 1 more named storm to tie 1993's record low, and even one of the storms that year was a WPac crossover first. This year will have the record low # of storms to form in the NIO if we don't get at least two more named storms in the next two months. 'Ryan1000 00:23, November 3, 2011 (UTC) Remnants of Keila Low chance of re-development.''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] [[User Blog: Cyclone10|''VEST]] 12:13, November 3, 2011 (UTC) 6 deaths in Oman already.''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] [[User Blog: Cyclone10|''VEST]] 23:52, November 3, 2011 (UTC) :And the tropics likely will go silent, until the MJO reaches the Atlantic (it's jumping over the Pacific in the next few days).... Yqt1001 00:12, November 4, 2011 (UTC) ::No chance now.Cyclone10Talk 22:04, November 5, 2011 (UTC) 04A.NONAME 96A.INVEST All hopes are in.Cyclone10Talk 19:46, November 4, 2011 (UTC) This one's right behind Keila, but like Keila, it's not very well-organized at all, and I wouldn't expect anything past tropical storm strength out of this. I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get Thane out of this, but the Bay of Bengal could also use some activity as well. If we don't get any storms there from now until January, it would be the first NIO season in recorded history to not have a single named storm in the Bay of Bengal. That sea typically has 5-6 times the activity of the Arabian Sea. Ryan1000 13:40, November 5, 2011 (UTC) However the BOB got the most intense system this year. BOB 04 reached some insane 978 mbar over land (at least according to the prelim report) though winds never were high enough for the system getting named. -- 20:33, November 5, 2011 (UTC) Remember, cyclones in NIO sometimes have unusual pressure Right now tis system is still disorganized.Cyclone10Talk 20:44, November 5, 2011 (UTC) now medium chance of formation it will probably be thane 21:27, November 5, 2011 (UTC) sorry i am not log in but i forgt my password''' Allanjeffs''' I'm not surprised if we have low pressures from depressions in the BOB, but still, it would be the first season ever to not have any named storms in it if we can't get one in the next two months. I would expect either Thane or a deep depression out of this, but I am not expecting a hurricane(cyclonic storm) from this. Still, flooding could be a concern. See the 2008 Yemen Cyclone. It killed nearly 200 people and did as mich as a billion dollars in damage. This one could tack on to what Keila already did. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 22:10, November 5, 2011 (UTC) Depression ARB 03 Upgraded.Cyclone10Talk 16:23, November 6, 2011 (UTC) Still hoping for Thane. 04L. '' 23:18, November 6, 2011 (UTC) I was calling on this, but we can hope flooding won't be that bad. If this does become a hurricane, it will be the first time since Agni in 2004 to see a storm reach hurricane strength in the Arabian Sea in November. ''Ryan1000 00:28, November 7, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone 04A It's here.Cyclone10Talk 21:12, November 7, 2011 (UTC) It still hasn't become Thane, but it is expected to and it is expected to(somehow) reach the Gulf of Aden. I'd be surprised if it makes it that far, unless there's an error in the Wunderground tracking map. Either way, NIO's slowly recovering from their early-season power outage, but still, they won't be as active as they've been in past seasons. Ryan1000 00:58, November 8, 2011 (UTC) I'm wondering why in the NIO the JTWC and IMD forecasts differ much more than JTWC differs to JMA, Mété-France or the BoM. In this case, f.ex., the IMD hints a landfall in almost the same region as happened with Keila, in the border region between Oman and Jemen while the JTWC forecasts a landfall in Somalia. -- 13:36, November 8, 2011 (UTC) IMD has issued last bulletin on the system, winds of 40 mph, so should have been named Thane. Major Hurricane '' 08:43, November 9, 2011 (UTC) No, it's one-minute winds were that high. It's 3-minute winds(which IMD goes by) were 35 mph, so it wasn't strong enough to become Thane. JTWC doesn't do the naming, but they use 1-minute winds instead of 3-minute winds like IMD or 10-minute winds like JMA. If a storm peaks with 3-minute winds of 40 mph or higher, it's a named storm by IMD standards. 'Ryan1000' 21:52, November 10, 2011 (UTC) 05A.NONAME Tropical Cyclone 05A The storm just moved over here.Cyclone10 04:30, November 26, 2011 (UTC) Not too surprised, I was calling this one, but even if it does become Thane, it looks like we'll still see our first NIO season in history to not have a single BOB named storm. 'Ryan1000' 08:18, November 26, 2011 (UTC) Expected to become Deep Depression ARB 05, then Cyclonic Storm Thane in the next 3 days by the IMD. Andrew444 (Talk) ( ) 13:24, November 27, 2011 (UTC) It doesn't look like it's really organized.Cyclone10 22:02, November 27, 2011 (UTC) Now a deep depression. IMD forecast for a cyclonic storm, possibly a severe cyclonic storm. '01F. ''' 11:39, November 28, 2011 (UTC) :Dvorak T numbers suggest that this is now intensifying at a rather rapid rate; up to 60mph if you use the T numbers. Yqt1001 13:24, November 28, 2011 (UTC) :Since it is at 60 mph, this would mean it is now a Cyclonic Storm with winds of about 40-45 mph (3-min) ''01F. '' 14:45, November 28, 2011 (UTC) :It has already killed 19 people! ''01F. '' 21:34, November 28, 2011 (UTC) No longer forecast to become a cyclonic storm. ''01F. '' 06:24, November 29, 2011 (UTC) Still doesn't look good.Cyclone10 13:10, November 29, 2011 (UTC) :So this doesn't look good? ''13R. '' 17:22, November 29, 2011 (UTC) Down to a depression. ''13R. '' 17:10, November 29, 2011 (UTC) Up to a deep depression. 5th one of the year. Andrew444 (Talk) ( ) 22:59, November 29, 2011 (UTC) No its not, it was a deep depression yesterday. ''13R. '' 23:13, November 29, 2011 (UTC) Last advisory by JTWC.Cyclone10 03:32, November 30, 2011 (UTC)